Wolfpack Vibe Check - Week 1

We're going to try a new series here where I'd like to take a measure of how the vibes are feeling a few days after the previous game and leading into the next.

Upon further reflection, the sky was not as falling as badly as everyone thought it was after NC State's game vs Western Carolina. Yes, the Wolfpack did not come out looking very sharp, but what else is new when it comes to week 1 Dave Doeren teams. This recurring issue is a factor in why I was hesitant to automatically slot the Pack into the conference championship game. Their season is still in front of them, however, and I’m confident they’ll still be able to make some noise in the ACC.

It is indeed weird that Western Carolina played NC State like it was their super bowl, while Chattanooga rolled over to Tennessee 69-3. Chattanooga was predicted to finish above WCU in the Southern Conference, yet they couldn’t muster much effort against their FBS opponent while WCU was leading theirs going into the fourth quarter. This means one of a few things: Chattanooga just showed up for a paycheck, WCU is better than predicted and will contend for the SOCON title (and likewise Chattanooga is much worse than predicted), or NC State wasn’t ready to play week 1 against the fourth best team in an FCS conference.

It depends how optimistic/pessimistic you want to be. I’m somewhere in the middle. NC State has WAY too much talent on both sides of the ball to really struggle against that level of competition. They also have a lot of new team members that haven’t played a game together, and game speed is different than practice speed (more on that in a minute). There are only so many practice reps you can throw, real games require different timing. This was one of my other concerns going into the season, will all the pieces gel quick enough? There is no more margin for error if you really want to make the CFP. Every week is now in “must win” territory. And if you want to win the ACC, you can slip up maybe once.

Concluding the WCU game, the vibes were most definitely off. The Pack got the mojo in the fourth quarter. Pessimism vs optimism factors again say that it might have been the Pack outlasting WCU’s stamina after taking their best shot, or that they dialed in their timing and made the right adjustments to play closer to their potential. That’s not even including the fact there were at least 2-3 touchdowns left on the table due to easy mistakes or dumb penalties. The final score ought to have been much higher, but that ties back to the margin for error. You simply can not leave points on the table; you must shut the door with a deadbolt.

I rate the vibes of that game as 🐺🐺.5 (2.5) wolves out of 5.

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Moving onto the Tennessee game, vibes are at a near all time high heading into this game. The game is sold out, will be the primetime matchup on national TV, with all the eyes of the college football world on you. Just saying that out loud makes me want to throw up. These are not the situations NC State generally operates well in. They have been more of a noon ESPN+ game kinda squad. But if you want to make that next step, going from 9 games to 10 or 11, this is the threshold you cross. Tying to the above, margin for error is out the window now, ready or not here we go. We talked on the latest episode of the Lotcast that this can count as a “house money” game for NC State. I hope they go in with that loose of a mindset, they literally have nothing to lose. Tennessee is the team that wants to compete for a national championship (in their fans’ opinions at least), so they NEED this game. NC State WANTS this game, we are not the same. Yes, if you want to finish in the top 12 and make the CFP, especially with the outside chance of the ACC getting an at-large bid (assuming a conference championship game loss), then yes you need this win.

Now, NC State fans online are special, to say the least. Playing these teams we don’t usually interact with always gives us the chance to be introduced to their section of Twitter that doesn’t show up in our algorithms. Turns out Tennessee-Twitter is bonkers, who knew? I definitely couldn’t have seen that coming.

In an interview this week, a video of DK Kaufman talking about practice prep vs game speed went unnecessarily viral:

Tennessee fans seem to be hypersensitive about looking for any slight, and claimed this would be bulletin board material for their team. I guess maybe, since Nick Saban and Kirby Smart do use these kinds of flimsy statements to gas up their teams to stay at the top week after week. Tennessee fans think they will have the chance to be in the mix to enter the vacuum left by Saban retiring, and their recruiting has surely matched that expectation. Head coach Josh Heupel hopefully won’t alert his players to these comments, they just made the fans come across as highly defensive. They really think they have the best offense in America. Maybe they do? Or maybe they played a JV team in Chattanooga? We’ll see, I guess.

I wasn't sure things could get much worse than Clemson fans, but wow, Tennessee fans take the cake. Half a week of tweets has proven they live up to their billing. It bothers me that fanbases like Clemson and Tennessee thought they were entitled to better coaches and better standards than they had, and basically whined there way into getting what they wanted. Meanwhile, patient NC State fans have been clamoring for a taste. Not that Tennessee has accomplished a fraction of what Clemson has, but to hear them hype up their team you'd think they were 10x defending SEC champions.

 Whether they’re the best in the country of not, it’s by far going to be the most explosive offense NC State will see all season. I think this game might turn into a shootout for at least three quarters. If the kinks were worked out last week, then NC State should be able to hang offense vs offense in this game. The Tennessee offense may be better, but NC State has a better defense and specifically at secondary. They will be on islands quite often, while Tony Gibson tries to dial up some pressure on the QB. NC State’s offense is very good but could look better against Tennessee’s defense than their offense will look against the Wolfpack’s defense.

The end result will make the game look like an evenly matched back and forth affair. If NC State doesn’t win, they need to keep the game very close to have any hope of holding onto their AP ranking after this weekend. The #24 is precipitously close to dropping out, and if that happens a win against La. Tech next week won’t be enough to have them reclaim their ranking prior to the game at Clemson. That game could very well be an unranked Wolfpack team vs a ranked Clemson team, a bizarro flip from expectation. The Tigers have a tough matchup against App State this weekend followed by a bye week to prepare for the Pack.

I’m expecting a great environment in Charlotte, especially if NC State stays close with the Volunteers.

Vibes are currently off the charts, I’d rate them at 🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺🐺 (16) wolves out of 5.

Excitement for a true breakthrough moment is at an all time high. We've been cautiously excited about this game for years, and especially for the last year as this year's roster came into shape. NC State normally doesn’t come through in these games, but I can’t explain anything else that’s happened in 2024, so who the hell knows. I think I need some water, maybe some crackers, I might throw up from nervousness. 

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AI Image of the Week

I think AI is objectively weird, and yet I'm going to try and use it each week to depict wolves defeating the mascot of the upcoming team in some way. Since I didn't want to punish people who volunteer for community service or something, I had the wolves go after the Tenneessee dog mascot, Smokey. AI prompts are dumb and punished me for going after an objectively good doggo so this is the best I could come up with. I'll try again next week, though I don't have much more hope since La Tech's mascot is the bulldog.

The prompt for the below image: "a handsome yet scary wolf eating a scared dog"