The Bigger Picture: Post Clemson-Squashing

How bad was Saturday's result? I began to write this recap as the second quarter started.

You can't spin what happened Saturday. That was embarrassing.

Clemson averaged 13.84 yards per play in the first quarter. Clemson had five explosive plays in their first 15 snaps. You knew this game was over with 5 minutes left in the first quarter! As Dave said postgame, "We weren't in this game."

Offensively, C.J. Bailey more than rose to the occasion, but he wasn't immune to mistakes.

There was a whole lotta awful around him on Saturday. Poor personnel picks, bad situational play calling, mistimed catastrophic plays and turnovers. Oh, and spitting on a defender and getting ejected. Super dumb.

I know Clemson is a good football team. Losing in Death Valley is something virtually every team experiences when visiting.

But what we have seen from this team through four weeks - with the investment made to win this year, with the schedule, with the coaching staff - it's more than hard to swallow. Most fans had State at 2-2 through four weeks, but not like this.

This team and coaching staff publicly declared goals of competing for an ACC Championship and a spot in the 12 team playoff. It seems like they are very far away from executing on that goal.

The Most Disappointing Thing

It's the effort.

We had some end zone shots of some of Clemson's long touchdown plays, and I'm watching guys pull up and quit on pursuit. Low energy, miscommunications, terrible body language. Like this team isn't prepared.

Hard. Tough. Together. Not this year, not so far.

The bankable thing about State teams the last few years has been the fight. Even with State having a very average high school talent composition, you could count on this staff getting the most out of what they've got. Not the case this year. The Pack has laid down in two straight games on the big stage.

We're looking at the first half advanced stats here, because I don't care about garbage time when Clemson pulled their starters, but State got its ass kicked:

To summarize:

• Clemson was effective at moving the ball on a down to down basis. 11.64 yards per play, and a 55% success rate is absurd

• State was gashed on the ground in a way we haven't seen from Tony Gibson defenses. Meanwhile, the Pack was not effective on the ground, with a bottom 4th percentile performance with run effectiveness

• Clemson owned State at the line of scrimmage on defense. A 20% havoc rate (TFLs, passes deflected, turnovers) is ridiculous, and State could not return the favor

You've already seen some of this hit the fan, with news breaking yesterday that pass rusher Red Hibbler is no longer on the team. I thought Red was really good last year, but he has not been nearly as effective this year, and he probably heard some harsh words on Sunday in film review I imagine he didn't like.

At least against Tennessee you were engaged for most of the first half. This thing was over from the jump.

Defensive Collapse

This defense is unrecognizable.

Harkening back to the previous paragraph: toughness, effort...we hear the word strain over and over around this program.

Not fitting counter well. Getting lazy with eye discipline and losing track of your defender. Missed tackles. Not communicating and getting lined up quick enough.

There's not any "one" problem, and that's the problem. It's a total failure on all fronts.

Every level of the defense has taken at least one or two steps back. The defensive line isn't getting push.

Linebackers don't pop on tape and consistently miss assignments. The secondary that we thought was going to be a strength looks inept at tackling and frequently blows man coverages.

We've seen maybe 2 total halves of good defense through four weeks, and its come against an FCS and bottom 20 FBS opponent.

Announcer Greg McIlroy - someone used to calling competitive games on ABC - was brutally honest about what he was seeing:

Well said.

Offense Flashed, But Not Enough

Early on, I actually liked what I saw from the offense.

The Pack opened with three straight successful plays, marching with a Jordan Waters 14 yard catch, a 7 yard KC catch, and another 9 yard Jordan Waters rush.

Then, they went to the gap scheme stuff. Then, the worst case scenario:

I mean, you have no hope of playing the type of game you want to with this sequence of events. None.

This is the exact scenario State had to avoid with a freshman QB making his first start. The margin for error was already so infinitesimal, and you blew through all of it and more in the first 13 minutes.

There were some really well executed zone runs this game, but they weren't there consistently enough to sustain the offense.

If we adjust State's first half rushing output for sacks, you're still only looking at 52 yards on 18 carries - 2.88 YPC.

It was too little, too late.

Personnel Pain

There's two painful trends I'm seeing with who's taking snaps for State right now.

1) There's some serious rotational questions on both sides of the ball.

On the first drive, we saw Demarcus Jones, Reid Mitchell, and Matt McCabe get snaps.

The Pack put in Val Erickson early in the first quarter at left guard, and he promptly whiffed on a key block and got a play called back for a penalty.

State is not putting its best players on the field.

Alongside that, they insist on rotating at a crazy clip, particularly at outside receiver.

Can the coaching staff give CJ a chance to build rapport with some guys in game? What if you didn't substitute every two plays to give the defense a chance to match what you're doing? What about using tempo to throw the opponent off schedule?

There's a stubbornness here that I can't figure out. I don't understand the bigger picture approach - what mismatches this group is looking for, how they evasion themselves moving the ball down the field.

2) State's "proven" guys aren't getting it done.

We've seen Aydan White give up multiple touchdowns this season and really struggle against the run. Davin Vann was State's lowest graded defender by a mile on Saturday per PFF, with a 39.5 / 100. Travali Price is struggling to set the edge, Ja'Had Carter doesn't appear to be the same guy he was two years ago.

The optimism around this defense revolved around some of State's known quantities "being dudes." They are not so far this year. This group desperately needs a game breaker to emerge. Payton Wilson is not walking through that door.

This also applies to the offensive side of the ball.

KC has not been effective so far this year when it's counted. At the half, he had 5 catches on 9 targets for 40 yards. Over the last 3 games, he's tallying 6.55 yards per catch. Where's the KC we saw running free against Virgina and UNC? The staff is clearly focused on getting him touches, but they're all at or around the line of scrimmage.

There's way too many questions on both sides of the ball right now. Not having the high floor of performance from the experienced guys on this roster is a problem.

Lone Bright Spot

I was not expecting to win this game. If there was going to be a win, for me it was going to be C.J. Bailey showing us something.

I was blown away by this kid. He started 11/12 for 135 yards and a touchdown, even as he saw the defense give up chunk play after chunk play.

He did have two turnovers, and made some freshman mistakes. His final statline isn't crazy impressive, but for him to show up the way he did against what I believe will be his toughest test - props, C.J.

Given the disappointment of this defense, I fear that he'll have to play way above expectations for State to have a chance moving forward. I'm not sure that's fair to ask of him, but it'll be interesting to watch, at least.

Moving Forward

This season was positioned as an opportunity to compete. Two big games that gave you an opportunity to make a statement, and a manageable looking schedule that appeared to give you a high floor for a season's performance.

Well, the statement this program made is that they're still not ready. And that hurts.

I am now looking for pieces that this program can build on moving forward. In its current state, getting to 8-4 would be a pleasant surprise.

Dave has been vocal this week that changes are going to be made, everything is going to be looked at. We've seen him make the most out of "back against the wall" situations in the past.

Can he do it yet again?