Patience and Value

One of the best leaders I’ve ever worked for has a powerful saying:

“In the absence of information, people go negative.”

It’s been quiet of late with N.C. State basketball. That’s creating some uneasiness.

We had news every day for weeks starting on the 9th of March. Coaching search ebbs and flows. Assistant coaching moves being made. Lists of transfer portal targets put together. Then, seemingly nothing.

Add in State losing its the first “big name” portal target, and I get it. Many schools are almost done making moves to their rosters. To an outside observer, State probably looks very behind.

I’m here to tell you that they aren’t.

While State’s strategy so far hasn't been the talk of the national media, I believe they’ve quietly positioned themselves to field a tournament quality team with upside in year one.

And I also believe you should give Will Wade - the coach 99% of this fan base was clamoring for a month ago - the benefit of the doubt, until you have evidence that says you shouldn’t.

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It’s not like the Pack hasn’t done anything in the transfer portal so far. The problem is the additions not being as big or exciting as some may have hoped.

For starters: since Wade was announced as Head Coach, it’s been widely known that multiple McNeese players would follow him to Raleigh.

That doesn't make these additions exciting or big time from a press perspective, but it certainly doesn’t make them less impactful.

In Alyn Breed and Quadir Copeland, N.C. State is getting two former Power Conference players that Wade knows. Breed brings athleticism, rim pressure, and defensive ability to likely a starting 2-guard spot. Copeland brings playmaking, more rim pressure, and an ability to cover 1-4 well defensively. (You should ​read more about them​ in depth here.)

Many people are fading Breed because of his career statistics, which I understand, but when Wade says he would've been the best player on the roster last year, I'm inclined to believe there's a fair amount of upside with him.

There’s value in Wade’s knowledge of what they’ll bring to the roster as he looks to build his first team. High floor, known quantity building blocks that will go well with pretty much everybody.

Most importantly, there’s literal value here. The speculation - because we don’t know or have public numbers on who is getting paid what - is that you are getting two power conference quality players at an advantageous price. Getting two players that will seemingly factor into the top ~7 of the rotation well below market rate opens up more opportunities for State to be aggressive in who they pursue.

The versatility these two bring - especially Copeland, who can switch anything position 1-4 - means Slater and co can be even more creative in who they prioritize. You’re not pigeon-holed into going after a specific type of big or wing pieces around them.

Maximizing your impact per dollar here while keeping your options open is a huge win to kick off the foundation of this roster.

I'm confident that if you change the name of the school these two are departing from, there’s more excitement around them. Don’t let the familiarity of these pieces lull you to sleep on what they can and will do.

While it might not seem like it, there have been "high end" adds to the roster alongside these two.

It feels like it’s been years since we saw that picture of Matthew Able in Flying Biscuit. We live in a world that is all about moving onto the next thing, but after watching the level of talent on the floor for State last year, landing a five star right out of the gate feels like a big move.

Able has been compared by some close to the program as “Klay Thompson light” - which is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison to make of a high school freshman. But Able could legitimately turn out to be one of the best pure shooters to play basketball in Raleigh in the last decade or so. Pair him with another guy who fits that mold in Paul McNeil, and you’ve got two high upside scoring stocks to slot alongside two vets.

Someone has to drive the bus to make that shooting work. Getting a Captain who played 100 games under Tom Izzo is a good place to start.

​Tre Holloman​ is a former top 90 high school point guard who is rated similarly in the transfer portal. Holloman is a playmaker first - his assist rate this year was top 80 in the country. He isn’t going to be the scorer that an Able or McNeil could be, but his career 35% three point shooting is more than enough to capitalize in the right situations.

State needed an experienced floor general who could defend and operate well out of the pick and roll, and they got him. And while we don’t have numbers on what State is paying any of these guys, it sounds like all of them were at price points that were advantageous to State.

These pickups are good! I’m not contending that State can make noise in the ACC with just these guys alone. But I do believe you’ve added enough quality and flexibility on your roster - at a fair value - that allows you to go in many different directions to field a competitive roster next year. There are thousands of winning rosters out there that can be assembled.

This staff seems super committed to paying a fair rate for each “unit” of impact a recruit might bring. That's the right approach.

You will need bigger names at some point, though. With that in mind, it makes sense that the McKenzie Mgbako recruitment stings.

The first “big” name that State was linked to, Mgbako was a top 100 portal recruit by most opinion and analytics based portal rankings. It was quite public that the Pack were the team to beat for Mgbako after his visit a week ago.

Until they weren’t. Texas A&M reportedly made a “crazy” offer so large that Wade and company didn’t even counter.

As folks were discussing State not landing Mgbako and countering A&M’s offer, a quote from baseball GM Andrew Friedman surfaced related to transfer portal free agency:

"If you're always rational about every free agent you'll finish third on every free agent.”

The implication here: if State refuses to overpay for every single prospect they covet, they’ll end up with nobody they want in Raleigh.

I understand and agree with this quote in principle, but don’t love it in the context of this decision.

Building a roster in college basketball has far less regulation. There are so many pools to look at for talent - junior college, division 2 and 3 schools, international prospects. With the right relationships, scouts, and approach, you can build a talented roster without breaking the bank on one or two dudes.

Look at this year’s National Champion. ​Florida built a winner​ around intelligent scouting, analytics, and a value based approach. This roster consisted of non-splashy transfers and 3-star high school guys that nobody was talking about when they signed.

They 1) maximized every dollar they had in the bank, and 2) didn’t take a bunch of power conference transfers that averaged 17-5 every night.

An interesting quote from Florida’s director of basketball strategy and analytics on roster assembly:

“We’ve never gotten a single player because we’re the highest bidder.”

NIL is certainly the big factor in this world of recruiting, but the relationships built and coaching reputation a staff cultivates still matters. That's why I'm so confident in this group.

Winning a National Title is an outlier outcome for sure. But State’s approach isn't directionally far off from what the smartest people in the sport are doing.

So while not landing Mgbako - who is far from a perfect prospect, by the way - might stink, overpaying for him and not landing one or two other guys you really really like as a result would arguably be a worse outcome.

The Pack has funding, a solid set of flexible pieces, and a hell of a coaching staff at an ACC school. We hung two banners in the Lenovo in November. This is a program that can and will attract quality talent.

Sometimes it just takes a second.

There are no bonus points awarded in games for teams that filled out their roster early on in the transfer portal season. While everyone who has made splashy additions to their rosters feel great, remember that only 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament. 1 wins it all That’s the goal.

The goal is not puffing out your chest in an online conversation in April before next year’s players even arrive on campus.

There’s no cap on the number of teams that can declare themselves offseason champions. I want to win basketball games.

Houston transfer Terrance Arceneaux visited last week. Alabama transfer Derrion Reid visits today. These are two former top high school recruits that ooze upside, but they don’t have the proven production that makes them feel like “can’t miss” prospects.

If State were to land these two - who both have varying levels of NBA potential - then you’ve got a real core of high upside players who would be part of the most talented roster in Raleigh in recent memory.

There’s no point in hand wringing right now. State is going to fill out its roster, and it’s likely going to be significantly better than last years, but we won’t truly know anything about this team until they take the court in November.

Until then, I’m going to be patient.

I’m going to trust the coach that upset top-of-the-ACC Clemson in the tournament with McNeese, and the GM who spent years with arguably the most effective scouting franchise in the NBA.

State will be fine.