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NC State lost its third-straight game on Wednesday night. It's averaging just over 60 points per game in these contests. That's not really super great. The halfcourt offense is a bit of a conundrum as a team that has some definite strengths and weaknesses, and is now at a point where it needs to solve for its weaknesses.
State’s offensive strength is sharing the basketball. Its weakness can be found in its shot making/creation. Michael O’Connell is a high-level operator, as is Trey Parker. Jayden Taylor has improved a lot as a passer, and both bigs have moved the ball well as secondary passers. Assist rate numbers may not reflect this for a couple of reasons. First, it’s generated a lot of transition opportunities through its cupcakes games, leading to a lot of unassisted buckets. Second, teams have sold out to prevent State from moving the ball, an approach that has worked because State has not demonstrated it can score in other ways, hence the weakness.
Structurally speaking, the Pack has had good counters to more aggressive ball screen defenses in the halfcourt. State assisted on 62.5% of made baskets against Texas. It moved the ball around well, got good looks from the perimeter, and exploited the aggressive rotations of the Horns with some roll and replace and shake actions. This team is putting some pretty possessions on the court right up until the shots go up. It cannot make the shots, it lacks a high-level scoring package that it can stick on the wing to shoot and attack closeouts with, and in the same vein, it doesn’t have a bailout guy. The putrid perimeter shooting through eight games is the reason teams are willing to over rotate or play such soft ball screen defense, the latter of which State started seeing against Coastal Carolina and has seen from Colgate and BYU since.
If you’re a regular reader/listener, you might remember the analysis of the Coastal Carolina game. The Chants hung around despite the disparity in talent by playing Charmin-soft drop coverage and affording State practice mid-range shots in order to prevent any need for rotation. Rotation is what opens opportunities for ball movement. State went 14-26 in the mid-range in that game. If it’s going to shoot at that clip for most of the year, that’s a legitimate counter. DJ Horne says hello. If it’s not going to do that, it might be in trouble.
BYU and Colgate both made points to go under ball screens. I was actually surprised that Texas opted not to do this. This possession against BYU is very indicative of the Pack’s weaknesses.
The Cougars drop the big and run the guard under the screen. This protects the paint and allows the guard to protect against the pocket pass that Michael O’Connell is so effective at hitting against drop coverage. In return, it leaves State’s on-ball player wide open from three. Taylor could pull up here and shoot a three pretty cleanly. He did this against Colgate a few times but did not make any. The Pack has taken seven threes in this exact scenario so far this season. It has made one. The guard is able to get back to the ball easier by going under the screen and Taylor can't finish over him.
The philosophy of this defense is to protect the paint and limit rotation by giving up easy jumpers. Every defensive scheme comes with a tradeoff and that's the one State has looked at a lot so far. What Texas did was functionally different but similar in philosophy. Help hard on rollers and force skip passes and return passes back to the wing. It’s just a different way of forcing State to either attack a closeout off the bounce or take a three, and nobody has demonstrated a real ability to do both.
State will continue to see defenses that do these things until it makes some jumpers or manufactures some other counter to it. The Pack went 13/36 from the mid-range in San Diego and it went 18/34 at the rim. The volume of those numbers is less attributable to a structural issue and more attributable to a personnel issue. State does not create rim pressure and it can’t shoot off the dribble. Its best offensive trait is exploiting rotation. Limit rotation and force State to win via shot making, and you’re in business as of now. Rotate hard and pack the paint, and you’re also in business. Both give up open threes in order to pack the paint. Play to an extreme to protect the rim and avoid getting burned by a roll man and you’re giving yourself a good chance.
Keatts’ task right now is to find an answer to this problem. It was clear early on that he wanted to transition Jayden Taylor to a more on-ball role, and this has not been a success so far. A lot of people might want to blame Taylor, who gets a lot of heat, but he’s actually a really good teammate who is just doing what is asked of him. His role transitioned last year and has changed again this year, and he’s always been a high energy guy who defends. This would fall more on the coaching staff.
I watched Taylor’s tape at Butler and never saw an on-ball role for him. I’m not sure what Keatts saw but this is a square peg in a round hole to me. I’m not willing to write the whole thing off yet because DJ Horne in this spot felt the same way early last year, and State eventually found a less traditional way to make it hyper-effective. That said, Taylor always profiled as an elite on-ball defender, a good cutter and off-ball mover with good court awareness, a guy who will give you a little bit of floor spacing, and a guy with a little bit of craftiness who doesn’t have great pop off the bounce. He creates more rim pressure than O’Connell, but it’s not enough. Keatts asked him to become a better passer this year to fill more of an on-ball role, and there is no question he has become a better passer this year, but neither his passing nor downhill scoring skill set is filling the creation role left by DJ Horne, and Taylor was dynamite last year off the ball.
Taylor is just 3/7 at the rim over the last three games and 4/13 from mid-range. He also has seven assists to eight turnovers. That shot distribution details two things to me: teams are playing a lot of drop coverage, and your on-ball operator is lacking an ability to put pressure on the rim. These two things were largely true with DJ Horne last season, but he was an elite shooter who was strong in the mid-range. Again, this is not Taylor’s fault. The guy has been nothing but adaptable and committed to whatever role he gets since he got there. It’s just that the role isn’t fitting him.
Trey Parker comes to mind as a guy who can create rim pressure and is already an excellent passer and reader of pick and roll, but he’s struggled on defense while Taylor has been fantastic there. Mike James has some potential here, but he is still out indefinitely. You could try exchanging Marcus Hill and Jayden Taylor. Teams are gleefully helping hard off of Hill in the corner. Taylor is objectively a better shooter and Hill is objectively a better finisher. Hill gives up some size which can make passing over a trailer coming off the screen harder, and teams will be extra willing to go under screens against him.
There is enough here to have a good basketball team if you can find a few extra buckets a game from your halfcourt offense. Texas isn’t great but is probably better than a lot of the ACC, and State with all of its shooting and rebounding issues still wins if it just makes a few free throws. Kevin Keatts is no dummy. We're going to see something different. Putting Trey Parker in the starting lineup against BYU was an obvious attempt to adjust, but Parker had a bad start to that game on defense. We'll see where it goes from here.
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