It's Grim in Raleigh

The prediction I posted on Trinity Road Times ahead of Dook read as follows:

"Duke is 4-1 in one score games. They're due, but they also have the best unit on the field (their defense.) The Devils' ground game should be able to do enough to eek this one out."

Duke ran for 31 total yards on Saturday. They did not convert a third down on offense.

Travel back in time, hand me a guarantee that these numbers will prove to be true, and I'm probably betting an irresponsible amount of money on the home team to win. And yet.

In its best rendition of doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results, State's offense put up its most pathetic performance of the year. Yes, Tennessee was ugly, but you were out of that one essentially on one play. State was always in striking distance, which makes this one particularly painful in my eyes.

Also painful: This was Duke. At home. On senior day. Against a first year head coach. An opportunity to extend your two game win streak and get to bowl eligibility.

Instead, State flailed.

Your Ballgame

State scored one touchdown on 6 red zone trips.

Analysis: You will not win FBS football games with that kind of ineptitude. What else needs to be said?

Offensive Malpractice

What do you notice about this picture? (other than it preceding incredibly unfortunate events.)

How about this one?

If your answer was "Duke has more defenders in the box than State can block," then your answer is correct!

Now, how might you choose to attack this defensive structure? Considering State's been far more effective passing the football for the entirety of the year, and that Duke is committing to stopping the run here, leaning on your pass game is a reasonable answer here.

Perhaps it made too much sense. Yeah, that's probably it.

Whatever it was, State ran into these box counts all night long. It's true, the offensive line had far from its best showing, but you cannot honestly evaluate the Pack's whimpering 2.9 yards per carry without the context that State elected to do this all night long out of their own accord.

Putting some numbers to the sadness:

• 32% Success Rate (11th percentile amongst FBS team performances)

• 4.29 yards per play (12th percentile)

• -.41 EPA per play (4th percentile)

• 3% explosive play rate (4th percentile)

  
  

If you're not effective on a down to down basis, and you're not explosive, you're not scoring points.

Even still! As I previously mentioned, State somehow found itself inside of the red zone six times. It only scored one touchdown, and that was on a fourth down play that needed to be reviewed to confirm the 6 points.

It was holistic stinkiness. It's always something - 3rd down conversions, turnovers, red zone effectiveness - and at this point in the season, it's obvious that the issues are systemic.

A Short Rant

Speaking of systems - "Players over plays" was the principle that Robert Anae was allegedly bringing to Raleigh. He showed a willingness to adapt to the tools available in his toolkit at previous stops.

Add in the fact that State has brought in two marquee college quarterback names in Brennan Armstrong and Grayson McCall, and it's reasonable for one to expect fireworks from the offense. I was thrilled to see him join the staff.

Instead, State has turned its offense into a turd manufacturer. Consistent substitutions and no variance in how quickly they play with tempo. No offensive identity from week to week. Asking your pocket passing quarterback to run. An unwillingness to commit to your best players. It's exhausting.

State played 3rd string wide outs yet again in critical spots. What's the strategy here? What value or mismatch does that create?

Hollywood Smothers has been your best back to this point. It hasn't been close. He touched the ball six times Saturday. Justin Joly - arguably State's most talented offensive player this year - caught four passes. And you're telling me Jordan Waters had more touches than these two combined? What are we doing?

I don't buy the idea that Dave is actively trying to undermine the offense through the making of these decisions. I do think rotations and strategy are driven by position coaches and Anae, respectively.

But Dave is the CEO. If these player rotations aren't optimal, if the play calls aren't working, if your best players aren't getting the ball enough...it falls at your feet.

We live in a college football world overflowing with data and insights that folks just a couple of decades ago wouldn't believe. Offensive innovation in the game is at its peak. And yet it feels like N.C. State is content to ignore it all.

It's maddening.

C.J. Stepback

We've seen brilliance from C.J. over his last six plus quarters. We wanted to see him continue that momentum against one of the better defenses on State's schedule.

This is Captain Obvious speaking. We did not, in fact, see that.

CJB finished with his lowest PFF passing grade on the year with a 50/100. His lowest completion percentage of his career at 41%. His lowest yards per attempt of his career...you get the gist.

Despite having a healthy amount of time to throw - 3.1 seconds on average (third highest on the season so far) - CJB looked indecisive and unsure. He particularly struggled against Duke's heavy usage of simulated pressure. The Devils did a great job mixing up pre-snap looks and dropping defenders into coverage to toy with C.J.'s eyes.

It's certainly fair to say that he had an off night. Again, though, I'll circle back to the strategy question.

Why are we asking a quarterback who has struggled with reads on run-pass-options to do this inside of your own four yard line? The Pack taking on a safety after a big defensive three and out sucked the oxygen right out of the Carter. They continued to run him, which didn't lead to many effective plays, and did directly lead to a Duke possession starting at State's 32.

With State's ineffectiveness on the ground, there was no way State was winning this football game with a below average performance from their quarterback. Unfortunately, that's what you got.

To me, this doesn't change the idea that C.J. is your guy moving into 2025. But it does highlight some of the trouble spots Bailey will need to work on in the offseason, and it frankly sucks that the egg was laid against an in-State opponent at home.

Defense Did Enough

I'm old enough to remember a time in 2021 - before the rash of injuries that State suffered on the defensive side of the ball, of course - when the Pack had both offense and defense humming. Wouldn't it be nice to see that again 🥲

True, the defense gave up 27 points on Saturday. But considering how little the offense contributed, and especially the horrific field positions they were handed, I thought they performed about as well as you could expect.

Duke had first and ten from State's 32 and 20 on two possessions. State's defense yielded 20 of the 52 available yards on those two possessions, and forced a difficult field goal.

Who carried the weight on this side of the ball? The youth, once more.

Tamarcus Cooley's rip and return at the end of the first half was important enough to decrease Duke's winning percentage by 24 points according to Gameonpaper.com. He graded out with an elite 89 PFF Grade.

Brandon Cisse played well - it's good to see him back given State's other cornerback play right now. Freshman LB Kamal Bonner had his best game as a starter in a position that has desperately needed playmaking.

It was far from a perfect day from this unit, but they did enough.

A Sobering Reality

This one leaves a terrible taste in the mouth.

At Duke, football is an afterthought. State had more fans in Durham last year than they did.

It certainly adds insult to injury with respect to State's overall year. I can't wrap my head around the idea that that this roster went 1-3 in the ACC at home against this home slate.

So, that leaves you with all of your momentum zapped heading into your final bye. Georgia Tech is up next. Their star QB Haynes King isn't healthy, but he didn't need to be to knock off previously undefeated Miami at home. After that, you head to play a resurgent UNC-CH team up the road that is figuring some things out.

State will not be favored in either of these matchups.

That means it's statistically likely this team misses a bowl. Goes 0-3 against in state opponents. In the same year State was openly talking about competing for an ACC Championship.

As I begin to think about the things State needs to win next year - coaching shake ups, retention of its most important players, continued NIL investment from fans - this is about as grim of a scenario as one could have imagined.

Two opportunities left. How do you respond?