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It was a bit gross at times, and it was a definitely a slog, but State claimed a 24-17 win over Northern Illinois largely courtesy of defense. If you were looking for positive signals on Saturday, you found them and defense, and you did not find them on offense. Let's get into it.
Somebody Found the Defense
You can take Davin Vann’s face off the milk carton. We found him. State’s best defensive lineman was a ghost last weekend in Death Valley, but he led by example in what felt like a personal get-right game for him. The defensive line through four games had frankly just sucked. Saturday it looked like a different group, an angry group that was tired of being spectators.
Everything was more physical. This team was actually hitting, straining on blocks, and winning some one-on-ones that it wasn’t winning before. Beyond the line, Brandon Cisse was a guy I thought looked contact shy early on in the season, but today was a different story. This man clearly got the message. The defensive backs were just not physical at all in the first four games, so seeing them hit and play like football players was refreshing.
The defense as a whole was not great, but it was definitely a serious improvement, and that improvement resulted in two plays that likely changed the outcome of the game. The defensive front created havoc for the first time all year, and it was the difference in a game where the offense played like crap.
State forced two fumbles inside the NIU five. The offense had to produce a single yard for 14 points to go up on the scoreboard, and that’s the difference in the game. Create havoc and good things happen. The most impressive play was the second fumble, which was created with a three-man rush and just a super effort from Davin Vann. This man is a pro, and it was nice that he was back to playing like it.
Vann started causing problems from the very first snap.
First play of the game, and Vann gets penetration and chases down the outside zone play. Good stuff from Cleveland here too.
Here's the fumble Vann forced.
Vann was getting dealt with in one-on-ones earlier this year. Here he wins easily. This is an also an excellent rep from Cleveland on the bull rush, which prevents any opportunity for the quarterback to step up in the pocket and past Vann.
The whole defense looked to be playing faster. It was far from perfect. I still recorded a couple different blown assignments in run fits, but it was much better. Isaiah Shirley was good in his first career start, DK Kaufman was better in this game, and Tamarcus Cooley looked ready to start games. The trajectory is good.
Offense was an Amoeba that was Also Dead
Run Game Falls Flat
The Wolfpack’s ground game was lifeless. Jordan Waters led the team with 23 yards, and the whole group averaged less than three yards a carry. Like it or not, NC State with CJ Bailey at quarterback in 2024 is not going to be a great offense if it can’t run the ball. More on this in a minute.
The offensive line has been a hot topic, and I wrote a lengthy article about their solid yet largely ignored play so far this season. It wasn’t a ground-breaking day for them, but it wasn’t bad either. It was just fine. State didn’t do anything great in the run game, and the line had some nice plays and some whiffs.
NIU truthfully does have a good run defense. Statistically, the unit checks in at 14th nationally at 2.9 YPC. It was 19th before playing State. It also held Notre Dame, an offense averaging 6.3 YPC, to 4.4. The Huskies are fun. They have a lot of games on the defensive line, and it gave State some trouble.
Here's outside zone insert failing hard as State tries to ice the game.
Pay attention to the tackle and end on the field side. You get a spike from the end and a stunt from the tackle. The spike is designed to hold McKay at guard, while the looper can shoot the space created by McKay being forced into a back-side step. The spike knocks Correll back and McKay tries to help prevent penetration, but comes off the double to get to the looper before Correll can secure leverage, and the penetration gets to the back. If McKay doesn't do that, the looper gets through and makes the tackle, so not much he could really do. The knockback here soiled this from the beginning. State also can't reach on any of these blocks. It's not making the highlight reel.
This is inside zone, and it doesn’t go far, but it’s a decent rep from the line.
Ideally, you can get McCabe(47) off that double earlier to get leverage on the linebacker (it doesn’t really matter to which side). The really bad block here is from Keenan Jackson(82), who is not an offensive lineman or tight end. Run blocking is an 11-man task, and look whose assignment ends up making the tackle.
This is outside zone. The blocking here is not awesome, but the back doesn’t really help.
Peak(65) gets the end outside. The double from McKay(52) and Correll(56) starts out strong, and the back is right to be tracking for the B gap. The double doesn’t transfer well. I think it didn’t stick long enough, and the outside seal on the defensive tackle falls apart. This ball hits cleanly through the B gap with a block on the backer in front if that block gets handed off from McKay to Correll without incident. It's not a great combination block.
At the same time, Raphael should be cutting this back and not bouncing it toward the boundary when that block falls apart. You can see him hesitate when the block loses its leverage, and he makes a decision. The beauty of outside zone is that the block losing outside leverage is actually okay if the back can cut inside of it. He does not do this, and the LB on the edge is able to pin him to the sideline and drive him out of bounds. Peak then gets called for holding, and cutting outside of a block that has developed that way is just asking for holdings to get called. Neither the line nor the back made the other’s job easier on this play.
These secondary cuts, reactions to further development in the blocking leverage, are the next step I think for Raphael. He's naturally much more of a one-cut runner than Jordan Waters. That's not a problem, it's just a stylistic thing that will work better on some plays and not as well on others. I wouldn't want him to lose that, but adding more ability to adjust mid-track would be a plus.
I've been impressed with Raphael's growth from last year, and this was a good rep.
It's a well-blocked inside zone play from the left side, a pretty consistent thing this year. Raphael is right to go front-side A gap. McKay at right guard initially has back-side leverage but the end gets over his block in pursuit of the ball. Raphael adjusts his track to outside of McKay, which gets him to the DB and adds a few yards to the play.
The whole point of zone is to make the defense wrong no matter what. It's the running back's job to make them wrong, and the ability to adjust the track as the blocking leverage changes takes some pressure to hold blocks off the line.
You can see it building with Raphael. I think he has superstar potential, but obviously still has a long way to go. The first thing you wanted was a step forward from last year, and there is no question he is reading plays better this year. It hasn't happened yet, but with the line playing solidly, be on the lookout for a breakout game from Raphael.
As far as the other backs, I'm starting to think Waters is getting a little frustrated. He's making some bad reads now that he never made in the past, even in the early games this season.
This is unbelievably bad from Jordan Waters.
This is a stretch play. It’s outside zone. The back’s aiming point is the complete other side of the line. Jacarrius Peak at right tackle does a really good job. This is actually a really well-blocked play. Peak is able to reach the end and win the outside shoulder, meaning this ball should be going to the front side C gap. Waters runs directly to the back side C gap, right into the edge player that is intentionally left unblocked. It's such a good early picture that goes to waste. This is terrible.
In his career, Waters has broken some big runs hitting this exact cut, but in those cases, there is penetration on the front side that forces his eyes backside and/or the edge player isn’t staying connected to the line. You can go back and watch his long TD against NC State to see this exact scenario unfold. None of that is happening.
Bailey Struggles
NC State can’t really stretch the field right now. It hasn’t proven to be in Bailey’s wheelhouse to this point. Through his third game seeing significant reps, Bailey is officially 0/5 on throws of over 20 air yards with one interception. He’s generated 4 DPI flags on unofficial attempts, all of which were a result of the ball being inside and underthrown. Underthrown isn't necessarily a deal breaker, but inside is a problem. The throws weren't super competitive, and if you think it's fair to count these, Bailey would have 9 attempts and 1, maybe 2, on-target throws.
The deep ball is something that needs development. The freshman, and it’s important to keep in mind that he’s a freshman, has a tendency to leave these one-on-one shots short and inside. He’s honestly lucky to have only thrown one pick on these throws.
State has worked to specifically create one-on-ones for shot plays. Formation-into-boundary concepts have been the most prevalent way of trying to push the ball down the field. Anae clearly believes in the receiving corps, and I think these guys can make plays, but Bailey hasn’t really given them a chance to.
FIB go and four verticals are how State has pushed the top of the defense the most so far with Bailey at the helm. Neither have been effective. This is why a running game is so critical. The idea that this team could be successful by just “slingin’ it” doesn’t seem to have a lot of legs. Maybe it will come around for Bailey, but taking the top off the defense has not been a thing at all.
There's just a lot of discombobulation in the passing game. This play had a shot, but Bailey looks to be on a different page than KC.
It's an out-and-up from Concepcion. It looks like Bailey is expecting just a quick out. He looks to try and throw this, but pulls the ball down when KC doesn't get eyes to him. Concepcion looks to come open on the out-and-up too. They're just not on the same page.
State is going through the perils of starting a freshman quarterback. Here is another example.
NIU shows a 0 blitz. It's cover 0 man across the board with off coverage, as is common when you show this kind of pressure. Bailey picks his matchup, which is the right choice in KC. NIU bails out though, and Bailey doesn't see it, nearly throwing a pick six. I really do like this kid long-term, but this is just the nature of an 18-year old in his second start.
Robert Anae's Passing Concepts of the Week
(forgot to draw the boot from the QB on the top right)
Doeren's Presser
As a general rule, I try not to put any real stock in press conference comments. Coaches tend to not be too revealing as what they actually think. It's PR, after all. Players see the comments, and you can bet that any coach cares a lot more about that than how the comments get perceived by the greater group of listeners. Whether or not you like that is up to you. I'm not telling you how to think or feel, I'm just telling you what I believe regarding what frustrated a lot of people after the game.
While I think it sometimes fuels silly takes, I do understand where the frustration is coming from. State was putrid on offense, and people want to know that a team that had the ACC Championship in its scope before the season isn't pleased with 179 yards of offense. I get it, and it's totally fair, especially when the answers start specifically addressing the fans.
However, I can guarantee you that Dave and the rest of the staff are not out here being satisfied with the offense on Saturday, regardless of what was said in the presser. The "shit, be happy we won" comments after last year's Virginia game started a firestorm, and State did nothing but tinker with its offense the rest of the season in the interest of improvement. It worked too!
Doeren and Anae will absolutely get to work, just as they always have. I have no idea if it will succeed, but if the complete reorganization of the offense last year and the defense following last week's embarrassment in Death Valley doesn't mean more to you than what the man said on the podium, you're probably putting too much stock in the words and not enough in the actions. The latter is far more important than the former.
How do you Fix the Offense?
I don't know. State is limited right now at quarterback. It's having to play a true freshman, and it's truthfully getting more out of him than you would most true freshmen. He hasn't been bad, but there are clearly some plays that get pulled from the play sheet.
To start, I think Concepcion needs more carries and just snaps in general out of the backfield. A lot of what State is doing is built around running between the tackles and using play action boots to create space on the edge. Nobody is really breaking tackles and making plays in space. Let's get KC involved in the run game more and see if he can make some DBs miss at the second level, and then you can start to create some explosives with routes out of the backfield in concepts like mesh rail where you get a wheel route from the backfield. This isn't an ideal place to be, having to put so much on KC, but State's lack of ability to stretch the field and the lack of plays made by the running backs is leaving it with some holes to fill.
I think I would ditch the formation-into-boundary stuff also. This is the Pack's primary method for attacking downfield, and it's been ineffective. Zero have resulted in an actual completion. Getting pass interference calls out of them isn't really sustainable. I would start there. Step one is definitely finding a way to spark the run game and step two is, when it wants to take a shot, looking for ways to create confliction or confusion instead of betting on its personnel to win in obvious one-on-ones. Wake Forest's rush defense is 105th in the country, so be on the lookout. A break out may just be in the cards for the offense.
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