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NC State, somehow, has had five instances of a halfcourt ATO (after timeout) play to win or tie a game in the final 30 seconds, and we're barely over halfway through the season. That's a lot, and of course, each has been rather excruciating. State has scored a total of one (1) point in these five instances. It has made zero field goals and scored zero points off the initial action in the play. It did win two of the five games though.
There is no question that State is ineffective in end-of-game ATOs. I try to judge the mechanics of the play design off intent alone. The actual execution is a product of a different element of coaching. When you look at it that way, I think you find that these aren't stupid draw-ups, but they're executed poorly quite frequently. Let's take a look at all five from this season, and then you can draw your own conclusion.
Texas
Situation - Down 2 with 17.2 seconds to go
Play - Staggered curl into pin down
This is a variation of a play Keatts used for Terquavion Smith and DJ Horne. The staggered curl play is what won State the game at Clemson last season. It is a wrinkle off of that.
This play usually has reads built into it. If, for some reason, the Texas defender runs under the screens, Huntley-Hatfield can flip his body and Taylor can fade back for a three. If he chases over, the ball can get to Taylor on the curl to attack the rim. If O'Connell doesn't like that, he can come back to Styles on the pin down screen to try and win the game with a three.
O'Connell doesn't like the curl. The Texas defender on Styles does well to not get caught ball watching in the lane, and he tries to jump the pin down. He actually gets screened but fights around it. O'Connell doesn't like that either, and the play is broken at that point. I thought the look to Taylor was okay. The one to Styles definitely was not unless Styles was going to curl off of that too. State improvises with a Jayden Taylor drive.
I guess this is fine. I don't love the idea of Taylor on the curl itself but you do need someone who can catch and shoot. I think the ball could have gotten to Taylor off the curl and it might have resulted in a better shot than what State ended up with. Either way, I don't think it's a super high-percentage play. You could could try Hill here as he's a much better paint finisher, but you concede the shooting threat. I think I'd still rather see that, and then if you have to improvise, he's much better there. You definitely want Styles as the shooter given how he was shooting in that particular game.
Florida State
Situation - Tied with 7.7 seconds to go
Play - Touch action into roll replace
This play mimics State's roll-replace action that it uses a lot with Styles, but it's ran a bit differently to target Florida State's defense, the only defense State has faced that switches every screen one through five.
As mentioned, FSU switches everything, so you'll never get the hedge and rotation that is generally vulnerable to a roll-replace action. FSU switches on the touch action and on Middlebrook's dive past the elevating Styles. This creates an opportunity to get Middlebrooks sealing in the post against Styles' defender and an opportunity to isolate Styles on Middlebrooks' defender. The Noles deny the ball in the post. State gets the look off the Styles drive but he misses.
Again, I thought this was fine. Styles was the man in this game and the only reason it was tied, so I get wanting to involve him. I do wonder if running this with Hill instead made more sense, as it could theoretically create more of a size mismatch and put a better paint finisher on the ball as the second option. A larger player matched up on Hill is going to give a big cushion, though.
Playing FSU is all about matchups because they aren't in rotation defensively very often. State is matchup hunting on this play.
Notre Dame
Situation - Tied with 33.5 seconds to go
Play - Iverson cut
State loves to run the Iverson cut into ram pick-and-roll. Here, it looked like it wanted to run it into more of an empty-side pick and roll for Marcus Hill, but got a great angle off the Iverson cut and attacked the basket.
When State runs ram out of this, the big is usually the first screener. Then the second screener screens the big's man as the big comes to set the ball screen. Did I use the word screen enough for you there?
Because Middlebrooks is the second screener, I think Pass and Styles are going to relocate to the weak side and run empty pick-and-roll. As you'll see below, Hill turns back to initiate, sees the angle he's got, and attacks the basket.
Hill gets fouled and nobody sees it. He kicks it back to Middlebrooks who is open as Notre Dame's big helps on the drive.
Middlebrooks tries to attack the basket but is defended well, so State resets and runs spread pick and roll. Pass finds Middlebrooks on the basket slip as Styles and Taylor pull help away from the paint.
Middlebrooks would make one of two free throws and State would win by one.
I liked that State tried to get Hill involved in pick and roll here. I thought you could also get into a ram action and a 1-4 ghost screen with Styles, creating a shot opportunity for Styles or possibly a switch that can you isolate Hill on.
UNC Chapel-Hill
Situation - Down 2 with 20.3 seconds left
Play - Rip into spread pick-and-roll with 3-1 slip action as a secondary
State runs two base sets here in a series and both go very poorly. It's pick and roll that can flow into an isolation as a second option.
Keatts called a base set here. These are both common plays for NC State, particularly the first one. Hill can pass to Styles for a post-up as an option off the rip screen, although that may have been removed in this example. Styles goes straight to the corner.
State then runs spread pick and roll, but looks unprepared for UNC to ice the ball screen. State flows into its secondary action here, which it runs maybe one or two times per game. O'Connell's slip can lead to an easy three in certain screen coverages or if the defense miscommunicates a switch. Most teams will switch on these guard exchanges. In that situation, it creates a theoretically positive matchup and space in the lane to attack said matchup.
UNC switches the screen and Taylor gets Cadeau. He attacks Cadeau after the guard steps to him. You want Taylor to win off the bounce here and either score at the rim or draw help from the big and dump it to Middlebrooks. Taylor cannot create the angle off the bounce. Cadeau moves his feet, something he apparently does a lot, even after he has picked up his dribble on offense. He's able to stay in front and force Taylor to shoot over him. Taylor has no chance of getting the ball to Middlebrooks when the big helps.
This is your roster limitations at work. First, you'd rather have Hill attack the basket here, but you can't have Hill in the weak corner on the first action because he doesn't space the floor. Taylor can't win off the bounce so the second play falls apart. On the first play, Middlebrooks could easily pop toward the point when UNC ices the screen and get a shot for the win, but you don't have a shooting five.
The thing I don't like about this call is that you used a timeout to do it. This is something State runs ten times per game. Why do you need a timeout that allows UNC to get organized defensively so you can run the same thing? That's the only big issue I've got with this. I also didn't like that State had a timeout and didn't call it when the play had clearly broken down during the first action. I suppose it was comfortable flowing into the second action, which is why it called it to begin with. I don't like the second action, though.
California
Situation - Down by 3 with 10 seconds left
Play - Not sure what best to call this
State was trying to get a three for Pass here to tie the game. I thought Cal defended this poorly but State also executed it poorly.
State has a corner pin play for Pass that it runs a fair amount. This isn't dissimilar other than the removal of the curl aspect because you obviously need three points. It sets up at first like an elevator screen but the elevator doors never close. I want to say that this was a dummy elevator hoping to get the guard to jump it in front, where Huntley-Hatfield could step outside instead and Pass could fade a step or two back. Then if the guy with the bad haircut closes out, Pass can make an easy pass to Styles. I'm a big fan of this if it's what they were trying to tee up.
If Pass uses Huntley-Hatfield's screen and 3 for Cal tries to jump it underneath, Pass needs to fade it back. If he chases through like he does, Huntley-Hatfield needs to flip and set a ball screen. The latter happens, and State actually gets a decent look, but Pass stumbles and takes an off-balance shot. 12 for Cal is rather fortunate. I have no idea why he is dropping on the ball screen with a three-point lead and two seconds left.
This was a solid design but not executed well. First, Pass is the highest percentage shooter on the team, but Taylor is shooting better as of late and in this game, all at a much higher volume. Running this for Pass is a mistake in my opinion. Falling down is also not what you want.
I thought the Cal play was a good design, the Florida State one was good, the Notre Dame play was fine, the Texas play was meh, and I didn't love the UNC one. Keatts' ability to draw up a useful play is not something I've ever considered a huge weakness. He's not a legendary play design guy, but these are fine. What's more consistently true is that they aren't executed well, and before somebody gets mad at me, allow me to clarify that that definitely falls on the coach.
If you happen to recall the Syracuse game in PNC last year, I thought that was a great example of a really nice play that was executed poorly. The flex cut for Huntley-Hatfield on the first-to-last possession against Notre Dame probably fits in that category too. I didn't have a problem with that, and he got a good look, but he missed badly.
There is something to be said for putting your guys in position to succeed. I'm not sure that having two separate plays in here where Taylor is attacking the rim is doing that, but there are plenty of things to like too. This experience of liking some stuff and not liking other stuff is not something you'll ever escape from as a sports fan. You'll recall that State was pretty sound in these scenarios a year ago. It won two games on its last offensive possession. At a certain point, you have to execute in these situations. State has routinely failed to do that. That's the issue more than anything else. With respect to this season, this halfcourt offense is functioning at like a D- level, so your success rate on literally anything won't be particularly high. That's a product of the player acquisition situation that I wrote about extensively this week.