Every CJ Bailey Shot Play (that we can see)

The biggest criticism of NC State's offense through five games this year is a total lack of explosiveness. State's starting quarterbacks have not completed a single pass of over 20 air yards. Both Bailey and McCall have one completion of exactly 20. That's not real good.

Why is this? Is State just unwilling to attack down the field? I think it's important to judge play calling by what the intention is, not by what actually happens. What actually happens is used to judge a bunch of other stuff. When it comes to shot plays, you can bucket most into two categories: designed shots and read shots. The first is a play that's specifically designed to push the top of the defense. The second is a play that features a deep route with the read depending on the coverage. What I've compiled below is a list of every designed shot play I could identify from CJ Bailey's stint at quarterback, plus any read shots he has thrown. It comes out to 20 plays through about 2.5 games.

Come on a journey of largely failed explosives. At the end, I'll offer my opinion on this, but I am mostly here to provide information. You can draw your own conclusions as to why State has not been successful here.

Louisiana Tech

Vertical/In-Breaker Concept

Bailey gets soft cover 1 with a bracket on Joly against this concept from a 2x2. Against cover 1, the go routes should be the first read. He picks Grimes as his matchup and tries to go back shoulder, but he throws the ball out of bounds.

Vertical/In-Breaker Concept (probably)

Bailey again gets cover 1 against what looks like this same concept, but instead out of 3x1. He picks Anderson as his matchup and throws a pretty nice back-shoulder ball, but he stares down Anderson, and the safety is able to read his eyes and make a play on the ball from the middle of the field.

Screen and go

State threw a ton of screens in this game leading up to this play, and it was able to spring Joly with a simple screen-and-go concept. He slips the block and is completely wide open.

Corner/Post

This is a play that can really screw with the boundary safety. Louisiana Tech bites like crazy on the play action, which completely removes the flat defender from the play. The boundary safety doesn't get to the corner route, but Bailey could have thrown the post if he did.

Post/Wheel

This is the first of many post/wheel plays we'll see. The concept asks the downfield route to carry the top of the defense, and hopefully there is nobody to pick up the wheel behind it. If the underneath defender runs with the wheel, the check down should be wide open. That's what happens below. State runs this out of 20 personnel.

Clemson

484 Concept

This is a cover 3 beater with man-to-man options. In cover 3, the deep hitch should hold the boundary corner, and if the post can win across the face of the middle safety, there should be a throwing window behind the boundary corner. If the safety gains depth, the post should be able to throttle down in the zone. State gets man, so CJ throws the hitch with the softer coverage instead for a nice completion.

FIB Go

This is as pure of a designed shot play as you can have. State goes formation into boundary, putting two receivers on the short side and one with a wide split on the wide side. The purpose is to create a one-on-one. State pulls two linemen and goes play action to hold any safeties, although there are none that could affect that route, and then Bailey takes his shot. The ball is left inside and State gets a DPI call when Jackson tries to get back to it.

FIB Glance-and-Go

Similar to the play above, this is a formation-into-boundary concept where State adds a double move from Concepcion. KC, as always, is open. The pressure causes Bailey to throw this ball off his back foot. KC has to come back for an underthrown pass and luckily gets bailed out by an obvious DPI.

Screen and Go

State tries the screen-and-go again, but Clemson is in better position to get to the route and doesn't fall for it. Bailey then has to improvise and ends up throwing it away.

FIB 989 Concept

The 989 concept is two go-routes on the outside and a post route. The post route can win across the MOF safety or throttle down underneath him depending on the safety's depth. Clemson ends up in a cover 1 look, so Bailey takes the one-on-one go route. I think he should have picked the one of the other side. There's a lack of chemistry here to some degree, which is understandable. It often looks like Bailey is trying to go back-shoulder on these, but the ball seems too far inside a lot of the time. A Clemson DB finally got his head around to the ball for an easy pick.

Stacked Verticals

Stacking receivers forces defensive backs to sort out their assignments post-snap, and the more communication you can force, the more likely a miscommunication happens. The drag route exists as a third option should you get an underneath player running with a vertical or trying to squeeze it from underneath. That drag route can come open underneath that side of the defense. Clemson plays pure cover 1, though. Bailey has a chance to hit this when the receiver just outright win, but a mistake in pass protection from the back creates a sack.

Ohio/Inverted Drive

This is the one shot Bailey has taken that wasn't designed. That's an Ohio concept on the right side and an inverted drive concept on the left side. Both have man and zone-beating elements. The go route is not often thrown in Ohio, but if you get press coverage, you can take it. Bailey gets press coverage and takes the shot. The ball is again left inside.

Post/Wheel

Running a wheel route behind a clear-out route is a pretty popular concept. This isn't technically a post but, as we saw before, the idea is to clear out the deep defender and then sneak in the wheel route behind him. The back is also to the flat here, and if the flat defender runs with the wheel, Bailey can get the ball to the back who should have space to run. Teams usually have coverage rules in place for this type of stuff, but this works exactly as intended with the clear-out route carrying the deep 1/3 defender and the flat defender sitting on the RB, leaving Joly wide open on the wheel route.

Northern Illinois

Mills Concept (probably)

We can't know for sure what the concept is here, but the seven-man protection is a giveaway that this is an attempt to go deep, and the two receivers on the same side makes the Mills concept a good bet here. Pass protection is bad and Bailey is forced out pretty quickly. He does well to keep his eyes downfield out of the pocket before taking off, but of course, we have no idea what the picture looks like.

4 verticals

Bailey gets a coverage look that I'm having trouble identifying against 4 verticals out of a 3x1. Whatever he saw, he didn't like, because he checks it down to Raphael quickly and from a clean pocket.

FIB 989

It's another one of these, and State gets a DPI flag. Bailey takes his shot against cover 3. The ball is left way inside, and the Pack gets bailed out by the DB not finding the ball.

989/Ohio

This is another 989 play, this time from a 2x2 where Joly in the slot is running a quick out, which is where the Ohio comes from. Bailey throws a bad ball to Joly, but it obviously doesn't matter five yards down the field on 3rd and 17. It looks like quarters coverage, which would make this play very difficult to hit down the field. Who to blame for this pass getting thrown on 3rd and 17 really depends on what the coaches want the quarterback to do in this situation. How aggressive State is coaching Bailey to be is a good question. I don't know the answer to that question.

Post/Out-and-Up

This is an extension of the boot flood stuff that State has ran a lot. It sets up the same way before Concepcion breaks up the field. It's similar to the post/wheel concept. This is designed to be a big play, but Bailey and KC are not on the same page at all. Bailey definitely thinks the route is a simple out, and it falls apart from there.

Ohio Whip/Double Post

This looks like a cover 3 variation from NIU. Double post can be killer when the inside post carries the middle safety, but that middle safety isn't close enough to make a play on the ball. The read here is the MOF safety, and the QB should work from the inner post to the outer post based on that safety's movement. I think Bailey was expecting cover 1 here, which is why he looked to the go route first. it's a good post-snap read to get back over to the post when he sees the zone drop from the boundary corner. Unfortunately, the throw is not close.

Post/Wheel

It's another post/wheel, this time from a different formation. The linebacker isn't fooled and runs with the wheel route, so Bailey checks it down to Waters for an easy first down.

Further Analysis

It's not for lack of trying. It's been 2.5 games for Bailey and this is 20 plays. State only ran 44 against NIU. The coaches are not afraid to try and stretch the field, at least if you go by the play calling. The success rate to this point would explain why they don't do it more. I don't know how aggressive they are actually asking the quarterback to be. The 989 stuff and the 4 verticals stuff are designed to be explosive, and the FIB stuff is very blatantly that, but 17 of the 20 plays above resulted in something other than a completion of over 10 air yards.

Check downs aren't bad, but you obviously don't want to be there too often. The DPI flags are positive results but coming from passes that are ripe for interceptions. Everything else is mostly bad execution. I personally don't care for the FIB stuff and wish State would scrap some of it, particularly the plays I labeled FIB Go. I don't think that type of throw is in Bailey's wheelhouse right now. The one-on-one plays on the outside currently have a success rate of 0.0%, and ball accuracy is the main reason why.

My opinion is that there are better ways to try and stretch the field, but the presence of all this stuff makes it clear they're at least trying. One thing I noticed is that Bailey is reading most of this stuff well. Some of it isn't hard to read at all, but the double post play and a couple of the vertical concepts he had right and just missed the throw. I would support more stuff that focuses on the middle of the field. Bailey got fooled by a disguised coverage against NIU and nearly threw a pick-six, and that type of mistake becomes more of possibility when you focus on the middle of the field, but playing the Emeka Emezie game on the boundary is definitely not working as of now. There is no obvious solution here when the execution has been bad, but that's what I, a humble internet man, would start to tinker with. Bailey can throw a nice laser. The stuff that needs air under it is what he's struggling with.

Here is the final breakdown of the 20 plays we looked at by result.

Incompletion - 6

Incomplete with DPI flag - 4

Completion 10+ - 3

Scramble/sack - 3

Checkdown - 3

Interception - 1