An Agonizing Loss

Terrible. No good. Agonizing. Heartbreaking. Frustrating. Mind boggling.

Pick your preferred negative adjective of choice. This was bad.

It is hard for me to remember a more gut wrenching loss than Saturday's - Grayson's tragic hit, missed opportunities to finish things, the 10 point lead in the fourth quarter. All of that in the context of championship expectations.

As I filed out of Carter-Finley Saturday, an eerie silence settled into the empty space vacated by disappointed fans. It felt like someone had vaccuum sealed the air out of Carter-Finely. Everyone was having the same realization: We are six games into the year, and this Wake Forest team just ended your season at home."

More than a Game

When Grayson McCall took the hit, I felt feelings I've never felt before as a fan. His helmet flying, seeing him immediately posture, guys kneeling on the field and crying. Putting it lightly, that was a "bigger than football" moment.

I'm not going to share the full clip of it here. As a heads up, I do share a screenshot of the hit shortly to point out targeting.

What's scary on the replay is seeing his helmet sliding off of his head before he took the hit from the defender. That's not something I saw live, but it gives me even more appreciation to see the following from State's official twitter:

​I was excited seeing Grayson start the game, but putting that to the side for a moment: Division 1 football programs have access to some of the most highly qualified medical personnel on the planet. If Grayson wanted to go - and had the approval of his family and the staff - then I have no problem with him getting in there.

I'm not a medical professional, so I'm not going to comment on his ability to suit up moving forward, but I have all the respect in the world for this guy no matter what he does in Raleigh.

That Hit Broke the Game

With Grayson's safety addressed, we have to talk about this play in the context of Saturday's outcome.

This play starts with a 3rd and 11 at Wake's 19 yard line. An obvious passing play, Grayson pulls the ball and scrambles for 9 yards when he's hit. Wake picks up the fumble and returns it to State's 2 yard line.

State went from having the ball on the 10 in a 4th and 2 situation - likely 3 points - to giving Wake the ball on State's 2 - likely 7.

Gameonpaper calculated this swing being worth 9.3 points. That's not enough, and this is where we get into the officiating malpractice that this play was.

By the letter of the rule, this is targeting. Maybe by two players:

I'm certainly biased, so if there's other camera angles out there that contradict what I see -two guys leading with their helmets and making contact to the head or neck area - then I'm happy to change my mind. There was no indication this hit was ever reviewed for targeting, despite a flying helmet and stretcher coming out for the most defended position in football.

Let's say it isn't targeting, though. Immediately after Grayson's hit, 3 N.C. State players have stopped playing. Seeing their quarterback in the fencing position on the field, they're waving to medical personnel, who are rushing onto the field before the play is over.

The referees are watching this unfold - there is a player with his helmet off, unconscious - and they let the play go. Absolutely awful stuff from this crew.

This should've been 1st and Goal for State at Wake's 5 yard line, which ~70ish percent of the time results in 7 points. I'd estimate this play to be worth 11 or 12 points. In a 4 point final, that's pretty damned important.

How did State lose this game?

Did the Grayson hit have an outsized impact on the game? Absolutely. It was one of three chapters in the game that I thought were most dooming for State. But that means there were two others that were in State's control that they didn't take care of:

Second Big Chapter - First Three Series of the Second Half

The Pendulum of Pain was back this week.

State opens the second half down 17-16 receiving the ball. And on the first two possessions they forced two turnovers? Sounds pretty great to me!

Instead, here's the result of those drives:

• from own 25: net of 7 yards, 3-and-out

• from Wake 35: net of 3 yards, missed kick

• from own 37: net of 5 yards, 3-and-out

0 points off of those turnovers. Still down 17-16.

Can't happen.

Third Big Chapter - Wake's Final Two Drives

To State's credit, they responded after the aforementioned offensive goofs. Scoring two touchdowns across 14 plays and 137 yards, the Pack was up 30-20 with 13 minutes left in the game. A spot that has resulted in wins ~95% of the time in Doeren's tenure.

Welp.

At this point in the game, Wake had 209 yards of total offense. In the next 13 minutes, and over two drives, they almost doubled that number with 125 yards of total offense.

When I think about State's defenses over the last several years, I think about a squad that completely shuts down the run and lives with what they give up through the air. They're disruptive. They don't beat themselves. They get off the field on third and fourth down.

None of these characteristics describe how State played defense in the fourth quarter:

• Wake was 2 of 5 on third downs, but State gave up the forced fourth down on these plays all three times - with distances of 9, 5, and 3 yards

• A forced fumble that State couldn't pounce on in Wake Forest territory, immediately followed by...

• A dumb, not even close roughing the passer penalty that turned a 3rd and 12 from Wake's 36 to 1st and 10 from State's 49

• State giving up 4 explosive plays for a total of 82 yards - two of which came on the ground

Particularly back breaking was Bachmeier's 16 yard scramble on 4th and 9 when everyone down field was covered. The very next play was a Demond Claiborne 32 yard run, and everyone in the stadium felt the swing that happened on that play.

I'll say it again - can't happen.

More Stats That Say "State was Better"

For the most part, State was the better team on a down to down basis Saturday, making the loss all the more brutal to process. Some advanced stats from Gameonpaper.com:

State's success rate was very good in this game - they were able to stay on schedule offensively for the most part, and they were doing so with chunk gains, as evidenced by their healthy 6.15 yards per play number. Their 3rd down success rate was good again this week.

I was hard on C.J. Bailey watching live, because I saw him miss several open looks for touchdowns, including a couple of first half routes run by K.C. But man, he settled in well, and finished 28/42 with 279 yards, two touchdowns and the pick.

Stepping back, I can't ask much more from him in the spot that he was put in after the Grayson injury. Now, of course that's coming against Wake's bottom 40 pass defense, but I thought he did enough to win.

Wake on the other hand was not very effective. Their saving grace was their rushing effectiveness - another surprising thing to type out in reference to an N.C. State defense - and a handful of well timed explosives, particularly on the last two drives of the game for them.

Wake's QB was the definition of average - he finished 16-32 for 148 yards - but I absolutely have to give Demond Claiborne his flowers here. 20 carries for 136 yards and three total touchdowns is impressive. Doing that a week after dislocating your kneecap? That's borderline insane.

A Growing Number of Questions

I continue to be stunned by the types of question I have for this team.

Offensively, I still have no idea what this coaching staff is trying to do with its rotations.

Quoting Phillip Danford from Inside Pack Sports - Anae's calling card has been "players over plays." In the past he's fit his strategy to the strengths of his players, vs. forcing them into a scheme or setup that doesn't fit what they're best at. I'm still waiting to see that change from him in 2024.

Take a look at the running back room for example. Kendrick Raphael had the only explosive run of the game, breaking multiple tackles for a 20 yard touchdown run with 3 minutes left in the third quarter.

He didn't touch the ball again. Jordan Waters got the snaps the rest of the way through.

Season stats for the two:

• Raphael - 5.8 YPC, 14 missed tackles forced, 7 10+ runs on 43 carries

• Waters - 4 YPC, 8 missed tackles forced, 8 10+ runs on 62 carries

I know Jordan Waters was an All-ACC guy at Duke, and Raphael continues to make some pretty bad reads running zone, but which guy do you want getting the majority of the snaps at this point?

Another place I look is at the WR/TE positions:

Daniels was the lowest graded offensive player per PFF with a 40/100. Baldwin is your 8th best receiver. Rogers, Grimes, Anderson, Joly, and even Keenan Jackson have been elite skill players for you. They're playing at or less than 50% of the time on offense.

What are we doing here?

Because I haven't made you uncomfortable enough about the offense: what's going on with KC?

I certainly have problems with how KC is being used. The screens and jet motions are being keyed on by defenses at this point. But looking at KC play football right now - body language, speed, playmaking - it's not there. 4.6 yards per touch over the last five games is worse than what Kendrick Raphael gave you this game.

It's not working. Either work to get KC involved down the field more, or - and this is what I'd like to see more of - get it to your other skill players that averaged over 10 yards per target this game.

Defensively, it's all the same questions. And the fatigue of asking them is starting to accumulate.

Tackling has been a struggle. Fitting the run is still a problem. State looks disruptive and physical at the point of attack against NIU, and then the next week, their defensive line is absent.

Guys at linebacker look out of place, unsure, and afraid to make contact at times. Defensive backs over pursue and take bad angles.

The biggest question I have for this defense: who can you count on to make plays when it counts? It felt like that could've been Davin Vann after last week - who did some incredible work this week to help Western N.C recover from Helene - but we didn't see him to that extent this week. Ja'Had Carter? Aydan White? Caden Fordham? Sean Brown? Brandon Cleveland? Up 10 and needing just one play to end it in the fourth, nobody answered the call.

That question deepens when you turn on the film - multiple staples of this defense have several taken steps back in their play from last year to this year. That has nothing to do with Payton Wilson not being here.

Nothing about this unit feels consistent or dependable, and that's very scary to type out with half of the season on the books.

How do you move forward?

State's goals are no longer within reach. Two months ago in Fall Camp, this group had its sights set on Charlotte and a CFP bid.

Fast forward to today, and you've been blown out by the two teams you needed to challenge to get there, and you've lost to the worst ACC opponent on your schedule at home.

This was the year State circled with a sharpie to compete. As I've said countless times, the NIL investment was there, the talent upleveling was significant, the schedule one of the easiest in the league.

And you're out of the race after six weeks. As defined by the goals of this program at the start of the season, this season is a failure.

At the same time, that doesn't mean you have nothing to play for.

You've got a ridiculously talented core of skill players, a young quarterback who has flashed upside, and a ton of winnable games on the schedule. Two in State teams left on the schedule, an opportunity to keep momentum on the recruiting trail. This is a proud program, and say what you will about the coaching job this year, Dave will pour his heart out keeping this team in the fight.

As a fan, there is a sadness in knowing that there is half the season remaining, and you're yet again miles away from your annually stated goal of winning a conference championship.

I'll continue to go to games, cheer, write - it's all I know how to do as a fan - but it won't be without that nagging feeling of "here we are again" that most of us know all too well.